The collapse of Situational Awareness was a stark reminder that well-established managers running diversified strategies are more reliable sources of steadier and less volatile returns than managers that swing for the fences. Volatility remains a key characteristic of the market which closed the first quarter down by more than -4% and then ended June above 10%. In contrast, the Top 50 delivered steadier gains throughout the first six months of the year, having realized first-half gains of more than 8%.Within that select group, 30 hedged equity, volatility, multistrategy, and emerging market funds collectively delivered returns well above the market.

Over the last 5 years through December 2025, the Top 50 again trailed the market by less than a percentage point while experiencing far less risk. And as usual, the Top 50 generated far superior risk-adjusted returns, experiencing half the market’s volatility and delivering nearly twice its Sharpe ratio.

It’s rare to simultaneously see strong investor optimism and sharply rising global risks. Robust growth in earnings and AI spending are driving the former; increasing reliance on military force over diplomacy by a number of countries is driving the latter, significantly impacting global trade, energy, and international alliances.

A White House determined to increase American influence, business opportunities and economic growth may indeed be supporting the US economy, the dollar, and equity markets. But it's also exacerbating macro risks, straining US credibility, the national debt, and credit markets.

The largest wildcards: continuing fallout from the Iran conflict that’s not likely to be resolved any time soon and Russian aggression that could turn toward eastern Europe, reflecting an increasingly more militarized and confrontational world.

Monet was 68 when his wife finally encouraged him to embark on a three-day, 1,100-kilometer train ride from Paris to Venice in the fall of 1908. The exhibition at the Brooklyn Museum tells the story of his first and only visit to the city, setting Monet’s work alongside oils, watercolors, and sketches of leading contemporaries, in explaining how Venice made him challenge convention, which helped revive and improve his subsequent work. An interesting parable.

While stocks and hedge funds have been surging, the Federal Government shutdown, further exaggerating the growing division between Main Street and the market. Through September, macro managers led the Top 50, surging by more than 11%, followed by multistrategy funds which collectively rose 10.7%. Emerging market funds continued their strong, up by more than 10.5%. Individually, the top performing funds in the 50 were again dominated by smaller managers. 

While the market rebounded from its -11% April low to end the first half up by more than 6%, the Top 50 provided a steadier ride. The group, which held flat while the market tanked, ended the first 6 months of the year up nearly 4%.

Digging deeper into the 50’s performance revealed the strength of some smaller funds. Of the ten managers that delivered at least 7% returns during this volatile six-month period, nine were managing on average $1.8 billion.

Each of these nine market-topping funds were running a different strategy with three managing less than $800 million. D.E. Shaw Composite was the only fund over $5 billion that delivered such gains.

By the end of the year, we’ll see if this distinction holds. But this finding is in sync with the survey’s broad composition, where half the Top 50 of the most consistently performing hedge funds were managing less than $1.8 billion.

See the fund tables starting on page 9.

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Despite two straight years of 25% returns, the market outpaced the Top 50 hedge funds by just 1 percentage point annually over the trailing five years through 2024. During that time, the Top 50 generated far superior risk-adjusted returns, experiencing half the market’s volatility and delivering nearly twice its Sharpe ratio.

A key underlying issue: three sharp selloffs since the start of 2020 tell investors how volatile the S&P 500 can be, especially now that the world’s largest economy has become a key source of geopolitical, macro, and market uncertainty. These risks spring from the breakdown in the norms and standards of governance across all three branches of the federal government. They are starting to impact the way markets and economies function—here and abroad. Ken Griffin observes, in discussing trade and tariffs, “We’ve devolved into a nonsensical place.” The single most significant force behind this change is contempt for established capitalistic, democratic and diplomatic systems.

This year's survey investigates how managers in the US and abroad are dealing with this very different world.

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Conceived around an unexpected maze-like layout that's meant to disorient echoing the times it documents, the presentation, lighting and color palette evolves with pitch-perfect pacing. All of this helps tell the story as much as the exhibition's wide-ranging content, which includes the first full-scale replica of the annex in which Anne and her family and colleagues lived for two years.

At the Center for Jewish History at 15 West 16th Street in New York through October 2025.

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A revealing discussion of how the most intriguing hedge funds performed last year and a look at the opportunities and risks that lay ahead.